System Dynamic Approach to Support Decision in Maintaining Water Availability (Case Study in Aek Silang Sub-Watershed, the Lake of Toba)

Irwan Valentinus Sihotang, S Sudarmadji, Ig.L. Setyawan Purnama, Muhammad Baiquni

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.v30i2.2719

Abstract

Water availability is immensely affected by the correlation among land use change, rainfall change, and population growth. One of analysis tools to discover how the correlation goes on in a hydrological process is by dynamic modelling approaching. The dynamic modelling result can be used for a substructure in decisions making as supports to maintain water availability for fulfilling domestic needs, agriculture, and Micro-Hydro Power (MHP). The aims of this study are to evaluate water availability as a long-term impact on land use change, rainfall change, and population growth with dynamic modelling and as a scenario which is required as basic information to make decisions in maintaining water availability. Analysis method which is applied in this study is dynamic modelling to long term evaluate water availability and validate using Mean Average Percentage Error method (MAPE). The analysis showed that the combination of rainfall of 2312.09 mm/yr, rainfall intensity of 0.340 mm/h, population growth rate of 7.23%, declined forest area of 1.513 ha/yr, declined shrub/unproductive land of 318.113 ha/yr, increased agricultural land of 7.627 ha/yr, and increased settlement area of 0.473 ha/yr, yielded the estimation of the fail in sustaining water sources in 2090 or the next 79 years from 2011 since the water deficit has reached approximately 3,249,881.02 m3. The value of validation modelling with MAPE method is 8.90, it is a dynamic modelling which is managed nearly the same with actual condition.

Keywords

land use; population growth; water use; preservation of water resources; dynamic model

Full Text:

PDF

References

Asdak, C., 2010. Hidrologi dan Pengelolaan DAS, Gadjah Mada University Press, Yogyakarta.

Asner, G.P., Loarie, S.R., Heyder, U., 2010, Combined Effects of Climate and Land-use Change on the Future of Humid Tropical Forests, Conservation Letters, 3: 395–403.

Chung, G., Joong, H.K., Kim, T.W., 2008, System Dinamics Modelling Approach to Water Supply System, KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 12, No. 4: 275-280.

Hartono, Meteray, T.B.S., Farda, N.M., Kamal, M., 2006, Kajian Ekosistem Air Permukaan Rawa Biru – Torasi Merauke Papua Menggunakan Citra Penginderaan Jauh dan SIG, Forum Geografi, Vol. 20 (1) : 1 - 12

Hartrisari, 2007, Sistem Dinamik: Konsep Sistem dan Pemodelan untuk Industri dan Lingkungan, Seameo Biotrop Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Hirijanto, Subandiyah A., Edi H.D.P., Ibnu H.P.J., 2013, Metode Global Plantasion Sistem untuk Antisipasi Dampak Perubahan Iklim (Kajian Daerah Irigasi Molek Kabupaten Malang), Konferensi Nasional Teknik Sipil 7 (KoNTekS 7) Universitas Sebelas Maret (UNS), Surakarta.

Igbawua, T., Zhang, J., Chang, Q., Yao, F., 2016, Vegetation Dynamics in Relation with Climate Over Nigeria from 1982 to 2011, Environment Earth Science, 75: 518.

Indarto, 2010, Hidrologi Dasar Teori dan Contoh Aplikasi Model Hidrologi, PT.Bumi Aksara, Jakarta.

Indra, T.L., 2013, Dampak Penggunaan Lahan Terhadap Tingkat Kekritisan Air Sub DAS Citarum Hulu, Majalah Geografi Indonesia, Vo. 27 No.1: 26-37.

Jiang, Q., Wang, Z., and Fu, Q., 2012, Dynamic Simulation of Water Resources Sustainable Utilization of Kiamusze Based on System Dynamics, Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture, VI : 367 – 375.

Kotir, J.H., Smith, C., Brown, G., Marshall, N., Johnstone, R., 2016, A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana, Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 573 : 444 – 457.

Liu, Y., 2005, Land Use/Cover Changes, the Environment and Water sources in Northeast China, Environmental Management Vol. 36 No.5: 691-701.

Liu, Y., Yaning, C., 2006, Impact of Population Growth and Land-use Change on Water sources and Ecosystems of the Arid Tarim River Basin in Western China, International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology Vol. 13: 295-305.

Mirchi, A., Madani, K., Watkins, D.Jr., Ahmad, S, 2012, Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problema, Water Resour Manage, Vol. 26 : 2421 – 2442.

Muta’ali, L., 2011. Environmental Carrying Capacity Based on Spatial Planning, Indonesian Journal of Geography, Vo. 43 (2): 142-155.

Narulita, I, 2007, Distribusi Spasial dan Temporal Curah Hujan Rata-rata Tahunan Tipe Orografik untuk Menduga Angka Koefisien Aliran di Cekungan Bandung, dalam Sumber Daya Air dan Lingkungan Potensi, Degradasi dan Masa Depan, Diedit oleh Delinom, R.M., Dyah M, Jakarta: LIPI Press, p. 197.

Purnama, S., 2008, The Potential of Rainfall and Its Impact to Groundwater Storage in Java Island, Indonesia Journal of Geography Vol. 40 No. 2: 153–166.

Purnama, S., Kurniawan, A., Sudaryanto, 2006, Model Konservasi Air Tanah di Dataran Pantai Kota Semarang, Forum Geografi, Vol. 20 (2) : 160 – 174.

Purnomo, H., 2012, Pemodelan dan Simulasi untuk Pengelolaan Adaptif Sumber Daya Alam dan Lingkungan, IPB Press, Bogor.

Rachmat, A., 2007, Dampak Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan Terhadap Ketersediaan Air Tanah di DAS Citanduy Berdasarkan Koefisien Infiltrasi, dalam Sumber Daya Air dan Lingkungan Potensi, Degradasi dan Masa Depan, Diedit oleh Delinom, R.M., Dyah M, Jakarta: LIPI Press, p. 21.

Sitompul, R.F., 2009, Merancang Model Pengembangan Masyarakat Pedesaan dengan Pendekatan System Dinamics, Penerbit LIPI, Jakarta.

Somantri, A.S., and Machfud, 2006, Analisis Sistem Dinamika untuk Kebijakan Penyediaan Ubi Kayu : (Studi Kasus di Kabupaten Bogor), Buletin Teknologi Pascapanen Pertanian, Vol. 2: 36-48.

Soedarjanto, S., Sartohadi, J., Hadi, M.P., Danoedoro, P., 2011. The Role of Vegetation Cover and Catchment Characteristics on Baseflow in Bali Island, Indonesia Journal of Geography, 43 (2): 97 – 110.

Takeda, K., 1993, Hidrologi untuk Pengairan, PT. Pradnya Paramita, Jakarta.

Wiyono, S., 2012, Penggunaan Sistem Dinamik Dalam Manajemen Transportasi untuk Mengatasi Kemacetan di Daerah Perkotaan, Jurnal Transpotasi, Vol. 12, No. 1: 1-10.

Xi Xi and Poh, K.L., 2013, Using system dynamics for sustainable water resources management in Singapore, Procedia Computer Science, Vol. 16 : 157 - 166

Yulianto, K., 2007, Menciptakan Generasi yang Arif Lingkungan: Sebuah Sumbangan Pemikiran Melalui Model Pendidikan Lingkungan Hidup, Jurnal Universitas Paramadina, Vol. 05 No. 1: 15-23.

Zeppel, M.J.B., Wilks, J.V., Lewis, J.D., 2014, Impacts of Extreme Precipitation and Seasonal Change In Precipitation on Plants, Biogeosiciences, Vol.11: 3083-3093.

Article Metrics

Abstract view(s): 438 time(s)
PDF: 246 time(s)

 

Cited-By

1. Land Cover Changes and Its Effect to Sediment Growth in Cacaban Reservoir, Tegal District, Central Java Province, Indonesia
S Sucahyanto, C Setiawan, R Septiani
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science  vol: 145  first page: 012078  year: 2018  
doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/145/1/012078

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.