Identifying factors influencing rice production and consumption in Indonesia

Abdul Bashir(1*), Saadah Yuliana(2)

(1) Universitas Sriwijaya
(2) Universitas Sriwijaya
(*) Corresponding Author


This study analyzes factors affecting rice production and consumption in Indonesia from 1990-2014, the data source is from Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The method used is model of multiple linear regression equation with ordinary least square estimator (OLS). Our findings indicate that rice production can be affected by human capital, labor, wages, wetland, urban population, and rice prices; on the other side, technology has no effect on rice production. Other findings on the rice consumption model were influenced by human capital, per capita income, population, and consumption the previous year, and meanwhile, rice prices has no effect to rice consumption in Indonesia. It’s an important note for the government in making the right program policies such as the development of better irrigation systems, empowering the farmers by providing regular training, subsidizing material inputs to farmers, expanding farmland for farmers. Meanwhile, the government needs to create policy such as food diversification, price stabilization security, the increase of rice stock, and other agricultural policies.


rice production, consumption, human capital, rice price, technology.

Full Text:



Antle, J. M. (1984). Human capital, infrastructure, and the productivity of Indian rice farmers. Journal of Development Economics, 14(1), 163–181.

Apostolidou, I., Kontogeorgos, A., Michailidis, A., & Loizou, E. (2014). The Role of Agriculture in Economic Growth: A Comparison of Mediterranean and Northern Views in Europe. International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 7(3), 81–102.

Azwardi, Bashir, A., Adam, M., & Marwa, T. (2016). The effect of subsidy policy on food security of rice in Indonesia. International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, 14(13), 9009–9022.

Bagamba, F., Burger, K., & Kuyvenhoven, A. (2007). Determinants of Smallholder Farmer Labour Allocation Decisions in Uganda. In Paper prepared for presentation at the 106th seminar of the EAAE, 25-27 October 2007 (pp. 1–22). Montpellier, France.

Barro, R. J., & Lee, J. W. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world. Journal of Development Economics (Vol. 104).

Bordey, F. H. (2010). The Impacts of Research on Philippine Rice Production. In University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (pp. 1–137).

BPS. (2016). Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia in various editions. (BPS, Ed.). Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

Bren d’Amour, C., Reitsma, F., Baiocchi, G., Barthel, S., Güneralp, B., Erb, K.-H., … Seto, K. C. (2016). Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(34), 8939–8944.

Chen, A. Z., Huffman, W. E., & Rozelle, S. (2003). Technical Efficiency of Chinese Grain Production: A Stochastic Production Frontier Approach. In American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting (pp. 1–29). Montreal, Canada.

Clapp, J. (2017). Food self-sufficiency: Making sense of it, and when it makes sense. Food Policy, 66, 88–96.

Clarete, R. L., Adriano, L., & Esteban, A. (2013). Rice trade and price volatility: Implications on ASEAN and global food security. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, 368(368), 1–35.

Dawe, D. (2000). The contribution of rice research to poverty alleviation. Studies in Plant Science (Vol. 7). Elsevier Masson SAS.

Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427–431.

Edriss, A., Tchale, H., & Wobst, P. (2004). The impact of labor market liberalization on maize productivity and rural poverty in Malawi. In Policy Analysis for Sustainable Agricultural Development (PASAD) (pp. 1–19). Germany: University of Bonn. Retrieved from

Ekou, N. (2015). The Effect of Primary Education on Maize Productivity in Ivory Coast. European Scientific Journal, 11(25), 203–217.

Fairhurst, T. H., & Dobermann, a. (2002). Rice in the Global Food Supply. Better Crops International, 16(May), 8–11.

Fakayode, S. B., Omotesho, O. A., & Omoniwa, A. E. (2010). Economic Analysis of Rice Consumption Patterns in Nigeria. J. Agr. Sci. Tech., 12(2), 135–143.

FAO. (2009). The State of Food and Agriculture. Livestock in the Balance. 978-92-5-107671-2 I

Felipe, J., & Adams, G. F. (2005). A Theory of Production. The estimation of the Cobb-Douglas function: a retrospective view. Eastern Economic Journal, 31(3), 427–445.

FRED. (2018). Index of Human Capital per Person for Indonesia. California: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved from

Grochowska, R., & Kosior, K. (2013). Agricultural policies in the context of regional and global food security concerns – the case of the Asian region. In Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics (pp. 25–33).

Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics. United States: The McGraw−Hill Companies.

Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2005). Testing for seasonal unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74.

Inoue, S., Okae, T., & Akashi, K. (2015). Rice Policy Trends in Southeast Asian Countries: Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia. PRIMAFF Review, 66(7), 4–5.

Jha, S., Kubo, K., & Ramaswami, B. (2016). International trade and risk sharing in the global rice market: The impact of foreign and domestic supply shocks. Asian Development Review, 33(1), 162–182.

Kea, S., Li, H., & Pich, L. (2016). Technical Efficiency and Its Determinants of Rice Production in Cambodia. Economies, 4(4), 1–22.

Koirala, K. H., Mishra, A. K., & Mohanty, S. (2013). Determinants of Rice Productivity and Technical Efficiency in the Philippines. Southern Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA) Annual Meeting, (October 2015), 1–16.

Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24.

Llanto, G. M. (2012). The Impact of Infrastructure on Agricultural Productivity. In Discussion Paper (pp. 469–486). Philippine Institute for Development Studies. Retrieved from

Malian, A. H., Sudi, M., & Mewa, A. (2007). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Produksi, Konsumsi dan Harga Beras serta Inflasi. Bahan Makanan. Jurnal Agro Ekonomi, 22(2), 119–146.

Micheal, R. T. (1972). Human Capital and Consumption: The Theoretical Framework. In The effect of education on efficiency in Consumption (Vol. Chapter I, pp. 7–13). Retrieved from

Milovanovic, V., & Smutka, L. (2017). Asian countries in the global rice market. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 65(2), 679–688.

Nuryanti, S. (2005). Analisa keseimbangan sistem penawaran dan permintaan beras di indonesia. Jurnal Agro Ekonomi, 23(1), 71–81.

Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.

Rejesus, R. M., Mohanty, S., & Balagtas, J. V. (2012). Forecasting Global Rice Consumption. Working Paper. North Carolina State University.

Reyes, C. M., Sobrevinas, A. B., Bancolita, J., & Jesus, J. De. (2009). Analysis of the Impact of Changes in the Prices of Rice and Fuel on Poverty in the Philippines. In Discussion Paper (pp. 1–73). Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

Rosegrant, M. W., & Sulser, T. (2002). Rice Price Crisis: Causes, Impacts, and Solutions. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, 7(2), 1–15.

Satterthwaite, D., McGranahan, G., & Tacoli, C. (2010). Urbanization and its implications for food and farming. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365(1554), 2809–2820.

Shaikh, S. A., & Ahmed, M. (2016). Determinants of Rice Productivity: An Analysis of Jaffarabad District –Balochistan (Pakistan). European Scientific Journal, 12(13), 41–50.

Tiffin, R., & Irz, X. (2006). Is agriculture the engine of growth? Agricultural Economics, 35, 79–89.

Timmer, C. P. (2013). Food Security in Asia and the Pacific: The Rapidly Changing Role of Rice. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 1(1), 73–90. Retrieved from

Turok, I., & McGranahan, G. (2013). Urbanization and economic growth: The arguments and evidence for Africa and Asia. Environment and Urbanization, 25(2), 465–482.

Wohlgenant, M. K., & Hahn, W. F. (1982). Dynamic Adjustment in Monthly Consumer Demands for Meats. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 64(3), 553–557.

Article Metrics

Abstract view(s): 3207 time(s)
PDF: 1866 time(s)


  • There are currently no refbacks.