Investigation of the Development of Tropical Storm Nicholas based on Global and Regional Climate Data

Intan Nuni Wahyuni(1), Ayu Shabrina(2), Fadhil Lobma(3), Arnida L. Latifah(4*)

(1) Research Center for Computing, BRIN
(2) Research Center for Computing, BRIN
(3) School of Computing, Telkom University
(4) School of Computing-Telkom University, Research Center for Computing-BRIN
(*) Corresponding Author


This paper studies the simulation of Cyclone Nicholas that occurred close to the coastal area of Western Australia and fell on the mainland of Southwestern Australia. The simulation was conducted via a dynamical downscaling model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), to obtain a higher resolution with reference to the regional climate data. The model simulation is generated using a global reanalysis of climate data for the initial and lateral boundary conditions. We investigated the response of the tropical storm to the model regarding the track and intensity using a modified Kyklop method that appears more appropriate for a landfall cyclone. Our study suggests that the regional climate data computed by the model deviates from the storm track of the global climate data forcing field. In this study, the track of the simulated storm is parallel to the satellite data, but it is shifted slightly to the east, closer to the mainland. Nevertheless, the model simulation can implement the intensity of the storm as strongly as the observation, while the forcing data delivers substantial underestimation.


cyclone;dynamical downscaling;simulation;WRF;hazard;coastal

Full Text:



Akhter, Shammi, Christopher E. Holloway, Kevin Hodges, and Benoit Vanniere. (2023). How Well Do High-Resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) Simulate Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal?. Climate Dynamics, 61(7–8), 3581–3604. doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06745-3.

Alcantara, Angelika L., and Kuk Hyun Ahn. (2023). Estimation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rainfall Risk in South Korea Using the Integrated TC Track and Semi-Physical TC Rainfall Models. International Journal of Climatology 43(6), 2776–93. doi: 10.1002/joc.8001.

Amaral, Cibele, Benjamin Poulter, David Lagomasino, Temilola Fatoyinbo, Paul Taillie, Gil Lizcano, Steven Canty, Jorge Alfredo Herrera Silveira, Claudia Teutli-Hernández, Miguel Cifuentes-Jara, Sean Patrick Charles, Claudia Shantal Moreno, Juan David González-Trujillo, and Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta. (2023). Drivers of Mangrove Vulnerability and Resilience to Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin. Science of the Total Environment, 898(7), 165413. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413.

Andraju, Pavani, A. Lakshmi Kanth, K. Vijaya Kumari, and S. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao. (2019). Performance Optimisation of Operational WRF Model Configured for Indian Monsoon Region. Earth Systems and Environment, 3(2), 231–39. doi: 10.1007/s41748-019-00092-2.

Anushka, Sandanam, Diedrich Amy, Georgina G. Gurney, and Richardson D. Tristam. (2018). Perceptions of Cyclone Preparedness: Assessing the Role of Individual Adaptive Capacity and Social Capital in the Wet Tropics, Aus-tralia. Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(4). doi: 10.3390/su10041165.

Aragon, Larry Ger B., and Alvin G. Pura. (2016). Analysis of the Displacement Error of the WRF–ARW Model in Pre-dicting Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Philippines. Meteorological Applications, 23(3), 401–8. doi: 10.1002/met.1564.

Bakkensen, Laura A., and Robert O. Mendelsohn. (2019). Global Tropical Cyclone Damages and Fatalities Under Cli-mate Change: An Updated Assessment. 179–97. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_9.

Bell, S. S., A. J. Dowdy, H. A. Ramsay, S. S. Chand, C. H. Su, and H. Ye. (2022). Using Historical Tropical Cyclone Climate Datasets to Examine Wind Speed Recurrence for Coastal Australia. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 1–13. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-14842-2.

Boutin, J., S. Yueh, R. Bindlish, S. Chan, D. Entekhabi, Y. Kerr, N. Kolodziejczyk, T. Lee, N. Reul, and M. Zribi. (2023). Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Salinity Derived from Satellite-Borne Sensors. Springer Netherlands. 44(5), 1449–1487. doi : 10.1007/s10712-023-09798-5

Bruyère, Cindy L., James M. Done, Abigail B. Jaye, Greg J. Holland, Bruce Buckley, David J. Henderson, Mark Leplas-trier, and Peter Chan. (2019). Physically-Based Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Scenarios in Support of Risk As-sessment. Weather and Climate Extremes, 26(12), 100229. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100229.

Chan, Kelvin T. F., Kailin Zhang, and Lifeng Xu. (2023). Tropical Cyclone Size Asymmetry Index and Climatology. Climate Dynamics 61(11), 5049–64. doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06840-5.

Chen, Wei, and Zhaoyong Guan. (2017). A Joint Monsoon Index for East Asian–Australian Monsoons during Boreal Summer. Atmospheric Science Letters, 18(10), 403–8. doi: 10.1002/asl.782.

Cheung, Kevin K. W., Fei Ji, Nidhi Nishant, Nicholas Herold, and Kellie Cook. (2023). Evaluation of Convective Envi-ronments in the NARCliM Regional Climate Modelling System for Australia. Atmosphere, 14(4), 1–36. doi: 10.3390/atmos14040690.

Chutia, Lakhima, Binita Pathak, Ajay Parottil, and P. K. Bhuyan. (2019). Impact of Microphysics Parameterisations and Horizontal Resolutions on Simulation of ‘MORA’ Tropical Cyclone over Bay of Bengal Using Numerical Weather Prediction Model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 131(5), 1483–95. doi: 10.1007/s00703-018-0651-0.

Delfino, Rafaela Jane, Pier Luigi Vidale, Gerry Bagtasa, and Kevin Hodges. (2023). Response of Damaging Philippines Tropical Cyclones to a Warming Climate Using the Pseudo Global Warming Approach. Climate Dynamics 61(7–8), 3499–3523. doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06742-6.

Denniston, Rhawn F., Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Kerry Emanuel, Roberto Ingrosso, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Alan D. Wanamaker, Matthew S. Lachniet, Kenneth T. Carr, Yemane Asmerom, Victor J. Polyak, Jonathan Nott, Wei Zhang, Gabriele Villarini, John Cugley, Darren Brooks, David Woods, and William F. Humphreys. (2023). Sen-sitivity of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclone Activity to ITCZ Migration since 500 CE. Science Advances, 9(2), 1–11. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.add9832.

Fuentes-Franco, Ramón, Filippo Giorgi, Erika Coppola, and Klaus Zimmermann. (2017). Sensitivity of Tropical Cy-clones to Resolution, Convection Scheme and Ocean Flux Parameterisation over Eastern Tropical Pacific and Tropical North Atlantic Oceans in the RegCM4 Model. Climate Dynamics, 49(1–2), 547–61. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3357-3.

Gaur, Abhishek, Michael Lacasse, Marianne Armstrong, Henry Lu, Chang Shu, Allan Fields, Francisco Salamanca Palou, and Yujia Zhang. (2021). Effects of Using Different Urban Parameterisation Schemes and Land-Cover Datasets on the Accuracy of WRF Model over the City of Ottawa. Urban Climate, 35(3):100737. doi: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100737.

Gorja, Mohan Murali Krishna, Venkata Sai Gulakaram, Naresh Krishna Vissa, Yesubabu Viswanadhapalli, and Bhishma Tyagi. (2023). Analysis of Large-Scale Environmental Features during Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Using Reanalysis Data. Atmosphere, 14(2), 1–16. doi: 10.3390/atmos14020333.

Halladay, Kate, Ron Kahana, Ben Johnson, Christopher Still, Giorgia Fosser, and Lincoln Alves. (2023). Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations for South America with the Met Office Unified Model. Climate Dynamics 61(11), 5247–69. doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06853-0.

Hsu, Wei Ching, Christina M. Patricola, and Ping Chang. (2019). The Impact of Climate Model Sea Surface Tempera-ture Biases on Tropical Cyclone Simulations. Climate Dynamics 53(1–2), 173–92. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4577-5.

Huang, Ching Yuang, Jia Yang Lin, Hung Chi Kuo, Der Song Chen, Jing Shan Hong, Ling Feng Hsiao, and Shu Ya Chen. 2022. “A Numerical Study for Tropical Cyclone Atsani (2020) Past Offshore of Southern Taiwan under Topographic Influences.” Atmosphere 13(4). doi: 10.3390/atmos13040618.

Jaffrés, Jasmine B. D., and Jessie L. Gray. (2023). Chasing Rainfall: Estimating Event Precipitation along Tracks of Tropical Cyclones via Reanalysis Data and in-Situ Gauges. Environmental Modelling and Software 167(7), 105773. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105773.

Latifah, Arnida L., and Didit Adytia. (2019). Effect of Dynamical Downscaling to Cyclone Simulation: A Study Case for Haiyan Typhoon. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1192(1). doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1192/1/012060.

Li, Ning, Gabriel García Medina, Zhaoqing Yang, Kwok Fai Cheung, David Hitzl, and Yi Leng Chen. (2023). Wave Climate and Energy Resources in the Mariana Islands from a 42-Year High-Resolution Hindcast. Renewable Energy, 215(12), 118835. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.05.093.

Lockwood, Julia F., Nick Dunstone, Leon Hermanson, Geoffrey R. Saville, Adam A. Scaife, Doug Smith, and Hazel E. Thornton. (2023). A Decadal Climate Service for Insurance: Skilful Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Activity and U.S. Hurricane Damage. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 62(9), 1151–63. doi: 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0147.1.

Lui, Yuk Sing, Louis Kwan Shu Tse, Chi Yung Tam, King Heng Lau, and Jilong Chen. (2021). Performance of MPAS-A and WRF in Predicting and Simulating Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Intensities. Theo-retical and Applied Climatology, 143(1–2), 505–20. doi: 10.1007/s00704-020-03444-5.

Luu, Linh N., Erik van Meijgaard, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Jouke H. S. de Baar, and Andrew Stepek. (2023). Impact of Surface Roughness Changes on Surface Wind Speed Over Western Europe: A Study With the Re-gional Climate Model RACMO. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(12). doi: 10.1029/2022JD038426.

Mashao, Frederick M., Mologadi C. Mothapo, Rendani B. Munyai, Josephine M. Letsoalo, Innocent L. Mbokodo, Tshimbiluni P. Muofhe, Willem Matsane, and Hector Chikoore. (2023). Extreme Rainfall and Flood Risk Pre-diction over the East Coast of South Africa. Water (Switzerland) 15(1), 1–19. doi: 10.3390/w15010050.

Moon, Jihong, Jinyoung Park, Dong-Hyun Cha, and Yumin Moon. (2021). Five-Day Track Forecast Skills of WRF Model for the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Weather and Forecasting, 1491–1503. doi: 10.1175/waf-d-20-0092.1.

Moreno-Ibáñez, Marta, René Laprise, and Philippe Gachon. (2023). Analysis of the Development Mechanisms of a Polar Low over the Norwegian Sea Simulated with the Canadian Regional Climate Model. Atmosphere, 14(6), 1–23. doi: 10.3390/atmos14060998.

Mortlock, Thomas R., Jonathan Nott, Ryan Crompton, and Valentina Koschatzky. (2023). A Long-Term View of Tropi-cal Cyclone Risk in Australia. Natural Hazards 118(1), 571–88. doi: 10.1007/s11069-023-06019-5.

Mostafa, Noha, Haitham Saad Mohamed Ramadan, and Omar Elfarouk. (2022). Renewable Energy Management in Smart Grids by Using Big Data Analytics and Machine Learning. Machine Learning with Applications, 9(6), 12–14. doi: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2022.100363.

Munsi, Arpita, Amit Kesarkar, Jyoti Bhate, Abhishek Panchal, Kasturi Singh, Govindan Kutty, and Ramkumar Giri. (2021). Rapidly Intensified, Long Duration North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones: Mesoscale Downscaling and Validation. Atmospheric Research 259(3), 105678. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105678.

Ningsih, Nining Sari, Farrah Hanifah, Tika Sekar Tanjung, Laela Fitri Yani, and Muchamad Al Azhar. (2020). The Ef-fect of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas on Sea Level Anomalies in Indonesian Waters. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 8(11), 1–17. doi: 10.3390/jmse8110948.

Parker, Chelsea L., Cindy L. Bruyère, Priscilla A. Mooney, and Amanda H. Lynch. (2018). The Response of Land-Falling Tropical Cyclone Characteristics to Projected Climate Change in Northeast Australia. Climate Dynamics, 51(9–10), 3467–85. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4091-9.

Quaill, Jennifer, Ruth N. Barker, and Caryn West. (2019). Experiences of People with Physical Disabilities before, dur-ing, and after Tropical Cyclones in Queensland, Australia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 39(3), 101122. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101122.

Quitián-Hernández, L., P. Bolgiani, D. Santos-Muñoz, M. Sastre, J. Díaz-Fernández, J. J. González-Alemán, J. I. Farrán, L. Lopez, F. Valero, and M. L. Martín. (2021). Analysis of the October 2014 Subtropical Cyclone Using the WRF and the HARMONIE-AROME Numerical Models: Assessment against Observations. Atmospheric Re-search, 260(10), 105697. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105697.

Sobel, Adam H., Allison A. Wing, Suzana J. Camargo, Christina M. Patricola, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chia Ying Lee, and Michael K. Tippett. (2021). Tropical Cyclone Frequency. Earth’s Future, 9(12), 1–24. doi: 10.1029/2021EF 002275.

Sondermann, Marcely, Sin Chan Chou, Priscila Tavares, André Lyra, José A. Marengo, and Celia Regina de Gouveia Souza. (2023). Projections of Changes in Atmospheric Conditions Leading to Storm Surges along the Coast of Santos, Brazil. Climate, 11(9), 176. doi: 10.3390/cli11090176.

Taylor, William O., Diego Cerrai, David Wanik, Marika Koukoula, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou. (2023). Community Power Outage Prediction Modelling for the Eastern United States. Energy Reports, 10(8), 4148–69. doi: 10.1016/ j.egyr.2023.10.073.

Torrez-Rodriguez, Limbert, Katerina Goubanova, Cristian Muñoz, and Aldo Montecinos. (2023). Evaluation of Temper-ature and Precipitation from CORDEX-CORE South America and Eta-RCM Regional Climate Simulations over the Complex Terrain of Subtropical Chile. Climate Dynamics, 61(7–8), 3195–3221. doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06730-w.

Vinet, Luc, and Alexei Zhedanov. (2020). A ‘missing’ Family of Classical Orthogonal Polynomials. Jurnal Kesehatan Komunitas Indonesia, 44(8), 1–12. doi: 10.1088/1751-8113/44/8/085201.

Wakeford, Mary, Marji Puotinen, William Nicholas, Jamie Colquhoun, Brigit I. Vaughan, Steve Whalan, Iain Parnum, Ben Radford, Mark Case, Ronen Galaiduk, and Karen J. Miller. (2023). Mesophotic Benthic Communities As-sociated with a Submerged Palaeoshoreline in Western Australia. PLoS ONE 18(8), 1–26. doi: 10.1371/ jour-nal.pone.0289805.

Wang, Jiali, Weiqi Zhou, Steward T. A. Pickett, Wenjuan Yu, and Weifeng Li. (2019). A Multiscale Analysis of Urbani-zation Effects on Ecosystem Services Supply in an Urban Megaregion. Science of the Total Environment, 662, 824–33. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.260.

Wasko, Conrad, Danlu Guo, Michelle Ho, Rory Nathan, and Elisabeth Vogel. (2023). Diverging Projections for Flood and Rainfall Frequency Curves. Journal of Hydrology, 620, 129403. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129403.

Xi, Dazhi, Ning Lin, and Avantika Gori. (2023). Increasing Sequential Tropical Cyclone Hazards along the US East and Gulf Coasts. Nature Climate Change, 13(3), 258–65. doi: 10.1038/s41558-023-01595-7.

Yang, Qianya, Zhongbo Yu, Jianhui Wei, Chuanguo Yang, Huanghe Gu, Mingzhong Xiao, Shasha Shang, Ningpeng Dong, Lu Gao, Joël Arnault, Patrick Laux, and Harald Kunstmann. (2021). Performance of the WRF Model in Simulating Intense Precipitation Events over the Hanjiang River Basin, China – A Multi-Physics Ensemble Ap-proach. Atmospheric Research 248(8), 105206. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105206.

Yu, Jingmei. (2022). Numerical Tests for Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction by the Global WRF Model. Tropical Cy-clone Research and Review 11(4), 252–64. doi: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.02.001.

Zhang, Minghong, William Perrie, and Zhenxia Long. (2019). Sensitivity Study of North Atlantic Summer Cyclone Ac-tivity in Dynamical Downscaled Simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(14), 7599–7616. doi: 10.1029/2018JD029766.

Article Metrics

Abstract view(s): 484 time(s)
PDF: 186 time(s) HTML: 77 time(s)


  • There are currently no refbacks.