Impacts of Climate Change (El Nino, La Nina, and Sea Level) on the Coastal Area of Cilacap Regency

Lilik S. Supriatin(1*), Martono Martono(2)

(1) LAPAN
(2) 
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

This research was conducted to determine the impact of El Nino and La Nina on rainfall as well as the impact of El Nino, La Nina, and sea level on coastal flooding in Cilacap Regency. The methods used in this study were statistical analysis and simulation. The results of this study were El Nino caused diminished rainfall in Cilacap regency between 295 to 1665 mm. Meanwhile, La Nina caused surplus rainfall between 189 - 691 mm/year in compared with annual climatological rainfall. When ENSO phenomenon (El Nino) occurred, it caused sea level anomaly to fall, including in 1994, 1997, and 2002 of -11.63 cm, -11.5 cm, and -4.95 cm, respectively. Meanwhile, in La Nina years in 1999 and 2000, the  sea level anomaly enhanced by  2.55 cm and 5.03 cm, respectively. The result of sea level projection by employing simulation model in this study was compared with the simulation results of the IPCC that obtained a correlation coefficient r of 0.99. Based on the simulation results, the 8 (eight) sub-districts in Cilacap Regency located in the coastal area potentially endure flood due to the impacts of global warming and La Nina with a diverse predicted year of occurrence depending on the altitude of each sub-district.

Keywords

Climate change; El Nino; La Nina; sea leve; coastal area

Full Text:

PDF

References

Ashok, K. dan Saji N. H, 2007: On Impact of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole events on the sub regional Indian Summer monsoon rainfall, natural Hazards, Volume 42, No. 2, pp. 273- 285.

Directorate of Water Management , 2009, Pedoman Umum Sekolah Lapang Iklim. Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Lahan dan Air, Departemen Pertanian.http://pla.deptan.go.id/pdf/11_PEDUM_SL_.

Estiningtyas W, F. Ramadhani, E. Aldrian, 2007. Analisis Korelasi Curah Hujan dan Suhu Permukaan Laut Wilayah Indonesia, Jurnal Agromet Indonesia, volume. 21, No. 2: 46- 60.

IPCC, 2007, Climate Change 2007 – The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Lansigan FP, Santos WLDL, Coladilla JO. 2000. Agronomic impacts of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines. Agric Ecosyst Environment 82: 129-137.

Ratnaningayu, 2009. Dari Timor ke Krui: Bagaimana petani dan nelayan menghadapi dampak perubahan iklim?, Saresehan iklim, Jakarta, November 2009. Pelangi Indonesia.

Sahu, N., Y. Yamashiki and K. Takara, 2010. Impact Assessment of IOD/ENSO in the Asian Region. Annual Disaster. Prev.Res. Inst., Kyoto University., No. 53B, 2010, 97-103.

Sofian, I, 2007, Simulation of The Java using an Oceanic Feneral Circulation Model, J. Geomatika, Vol. 13, No. 2: 1-14.

Subagyono, K and E. Surmaini, 2007, Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Iklim dan Air Untuk Antisipasi Perubahan Iklim, Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika, Volume. 8, No. 1, Juli: 27-41.

Susandi, A., Herlianti, I., Tamamadin, M., Nurlela, I. 2008. Dampak Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Ketinggian Muka Laut Di Wilayah Banjarmasin. Jurnal Ekonomi Lingkungan Vol.12, No.2, p.1-8.

http://pifsc-oceanwatch.irc.noaa.gov/las/servlets/dataset

Article Metrics

Abstract view(s): 2222 time(s)
PDF: 1377 time(s)

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.