Analysis of Long-Term Temperature Trend as an Urban Climate Change Indicator

Dadang Subarna

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.v31i2.4189

Abstract

Temperature plays a major role in detecting climate change brought about by urbanisation and industrialisation. Most climatic impact studies rely on changes in the average values of meteorological variables such as temperature. This paper attempts to study the temporal changes in the mean value of the air surface temperature over Jakarta city during the last century, specifically in the period 1901–2002.The data used in this study were taken from the Jakarta Climatology Station because they are of are good quality, there are extensive records and there is little missing or blank data. Statistic descriptive methods were employed, including a description of the type of probabilistic model chosen to represent the monthly mean air surface temperature time series. The long-term change in temperature was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall trend test method and the statistical linear trend test; the results of these two tests agreed. During the last 100 years, data observations from the station indicate that the monthly mean value of the air surface temperature of Jakarta city has increased at a rate of about 0.152°C decade–1 and has not exhibited variability signals but has changed on average. Based on the linear regression model, the mean value of the air surface temperature over Jakarta city is estimated to reach around 28.5°C in 2050 and 29.23°C in 2100.

Keywords

Variability, Air Surface Temperature; Trend; Mann-Kendall; Climate Change;

Full Text:

PDF HTML

References

Buchdahl, J., 2002, Weather and Climate Teaching Pack, www.ace.mmu.ac.uk Accessed on 12 Maret 2013

Carter, J.G., G. Cavan, A. Connelly, S. Guy, J. Handley and A. Kazmierczak. (2015). Climate change and the city: Building capacity for urban adaptation.Progress in Planning, pp.1-66

Case, M., F. Ardiansyah and E. Spector. (2007). Climate Change in Indonesia: Implications for Humans and Nature. www.wwf.or.id . Accessed on 22 August 2017

Dhorde, A., A. Dhorde1, and A. S.Gadgil. 2009. Long-term Temperature Trends at Four Largest Cities of India during the Twentieth Century. J. Ind. Geophys. Union Vol.13, No.2, pp.85-97.

Gurevish, G., Y. Hadad. A. Ofir and B.Ohayon. (2011). Statistical Analysis of Temperatur Change In Israel: An Application fF Change Point Detection and Estimation Techniques. Global NEST Journal, Vol 13, No 3, pp 215-228.

Hasler. A. , M. Geertsema , V. Foord1 , S. Gruber , and J. Noetzli. (2015). The influence of surface characteristics, topography and continentality on mountain permafrost in British Columbia The Cryosphere, 9, 1025–1038

Hughes, G. L., S.S. Rao and T.S. Rao. (2006). Statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula. Proc. R. Soc. A.

Irwansyah. (2016). What do scientists say on climate change? A study of Indonesian newspapers. Pacific Science Review B: Humanities and Social Sciences 2 58-65

IPCC .(2008). Working Group II IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Report "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability", Chapter 3, Freshwater Resources and their Management, tersedia pada http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm. Accessed on 28 Desember 2012

IPCC .(2013). Climate Change. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Summary for Policymakers are available from the IPCC website www.ipcc.ch and the IPCC WGI AR5 website www.climatechange2013.org

KOMPAS, (2009). Suhu Udara di Indonesia Rata-rata Naik: Kenaikan di Beberapa Kota di Atas Satu Derajat Celsius, KOMPAS GRAMEDIA, Terbitan 31 Maret 2009

Li, X. (2009). Applying GLM Model and ARIMA Model to the Analysis Of Monthly Temperature of Stockholm. D-level Essay in Statistics in Spring 2009 Department of Economics and Society, Dalarna University

Measey, M (2010). Indonesia: A Vulnerable Country in the Face of Climate Change. Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 31-45

Ming, T., R. de_Richter, W. Liu and S. Caillol. (2014). Fighting global warming by climate engineering: Is the Earth radiation management and the solar radiation management any option for fighting climate change?. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews V. 31, pp. 792–834

Morales J., V. Stuart, T. Platt and S. Sathyendranath. (2011). Handbook of Satellite Remote Sensing Image Interpretation: Applications Marine for Living Resources Conservation and Management. The EU PRESPO Project and IOCCG

Muhammad Zikra , M., Suntoyo and Lukijanto.(2015). Climate change impacts on Indonesian coastal areas. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 14, 57 – 63

NASA Earth Observatory, (2015) World of Change: Global Temperatures. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/.accessed at 6 August 2017

PEACE. (2007). Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies World Bank

Onoz, B., and M. Bayazit. (2003) The Power of Statistical Tests for Trend Detection, J. Eng. Env.Sci. Vol.27, 247-251, TUBITAK Turkish

Subarna, D. (2010). Analisis Variabilitas Suhu Permukaan Bulanan di Atas Kepulauan Indonesia Selama Satu Abad Terakhir. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Sains Atmosfer I 2010, Bandung 16 Juni 2010, 142-147

Shahmohamadi, P., A. I. Che-Ani, K. N. A. Maulud, N. M. Tawil, and N. A. G. Abdullah. (2011) The Impact of Anthropogenic Heat on Formation of Urban Heat Island and Energy Consumption Balance. Urban Studies Research, V.2011, Article ID 497524, p. 9

Voiland, A. (2011). Global temperature records in close agreement. Retrieved 6 December 2017, from https://climate.nasa.gov/news/468/global-temperature-records-in-close-agreement/

WMO.(2013). The Global Climate 2001–2010: a Decade of Climate Extremes Summary Report. WMO-No. 1119. CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland

Article Metrics

Abstract view(s): 503 time(s)
PDF: 100 time(s) HTML: 495 time(s)

Refbacks