Land Use Change Modelling Using Logistic Regression, Random Forest and Additive Logistic Regression in Kubu Raya Regency, West Kalimantan

Alfa Nugraha Pradana(1*), Anik Djuraidah(2), Agus Mohamad Soleh(3)

(1) Department of Statistics, IPB University, Jl. Lingkar Akademik Kampus IPB Dramaga, Bogor 16680, Indonesia; Centre for International Forestry Research – World Agroforestry Centre, Jl. CIFOR, Situ Gede, Sindang Barang, Bo-gor 16115, Indonesia
(2) Department of Statistics, IPB University, Jl. Lingkar Akademik Kampus IPB Dramaga, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
(3) Department of Statistics, IPB University, Jl. Lingkar Akademik Kampus IPB Dramaga, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

Kubu Raya Regency is a regency in the province of West Kalimantan which has a wetland ecosystem including a high-density swamp or peatland ecosystem along with an extensive area of mangroves. The function of wetland ecosystems is essential for fauna, as a source of livelihood for the surrounding community and as storage reservoir for carbon stocks. Most of the land in Kubu Raya Regency is peatland. As a consequence, peat has long been used for agriculture and as a source of livelihood for the community. Along with the vast area of peat, the regency also has a potential high risk of peat fires. This study aims to predict land use changes in Kubu Raya Regency using three statistical machine learning models, specifically Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and Additive Logistic Regression (ALR). Land cover map data were acquired from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry and subsequently reclassified into six types of land cover at a resolution of 100 m. The land cover data were employed to classify land use or land cover class for the Kubu Raya regency, for the years 2009, 2015 and 2020. Based on model performance, RF provides greater accuracy and F1 score as opposed to LR and ALR. The outcome of this study is expected to provide knowledge and recommendations that may aid in developing future sustainable development planning and management for Kubu Raya Regency.

Keywords

land use change modelling;wetlands;logistic regression;random forest;additive logistic regression;Kubu Raya

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