HUBUNGAN ANTARA HASIL DENGAN PERBELANJAAN KERAJAAN: BUKTI EMPIRIKAL KERAJAAN NEGERI DI SEMENANJUNG MALAYSIA

Zulkefly Abdul Karim(1*), Antoni Antoni(2), Aminudin Mokhta(3), Norain Mod Asri(4)

(1) Pensyarah Fakultas Ekonomi University Kebangsaan Malaysia
(2) Pensyarah Fakultas.Ekonomi Universitas Bung Hatta
(3) Pensyarah Fakultas Ekonomi University Kebangsaan Malaysia
(4) Pensyarah Fakultas.Ekonomi Universitas Bung Hatta
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk memeriksa hubungan antara pemboleh ubah fiskal iaitu perbelanjaan dan hasil dengan menggunakan data di peringkat kerajaan negeri di Semenanjung Malaysia. Kaedah ekonometrik siri masa diaplikasikan dalam kajian ini yang terdiri daripada ujian kointegrasi Johansen dan ujian sebab-menyebab Granger untuk menentukan arah hubungan kedua-dua pemboleh ubah fiskal tersebut. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan keputusan yang tidak selaras, yang mana sebilangan besar negeri menepati hipotesis hasil-belanja atau revenue-spend hypothesis (misalnya negeri Kedah, Melaka, Pahang, Perak, dan Terengganu), manakala hipotesis belanja-hasil atau spend-revenue hypothesis hanya wujud di negeri Perlis sahaja, dan tiada hubungan antara hasil dengan belanja di negeri Johor, Kelantan dan Pulau Pinang yang menunjukkan bahawa kedua-dua pemboleh ubah fiskal adalah bersifat nuetral. Hipotesis hubungan sebab-menyebab dua hala (the fiscal synchronization hypothesis) hanya berlaku bagi kes negeri Selangor dan Negeri Sembilan sahaja. Penemuan kajian ini telah memberikan beberapa implikasi penting kepada strategi belanjawan kerajaan negeri tersebut.

Keywords

ekonomi fiskal; belanjawan kerajaan negeri; ujian kointegrasi; ujian sebab-menyebab

Full Text:

PDF

References

Abdul Ghafar Ismail. (1987). Pertumbulian Perbelanjaan Awam di Semenanjung Malaysia, 1960-1986. Kertas Kerja Kursus Pembiayaan Awam, Fakulti Ekonomi, UKM. Tidak diterbitkan.

Anderson, W., Wallace, M.S. & Warner, J.T. (1986). Government Spending and Taxation: What Causes What? Sourthern Economic Journal, 630-639.

Baghestani, H & McNown, R. (1994). Do Revenue or Expenditure Respond to Budgetary Disequilibria?. Southern Economic Journal, 52, 311-322.

Barro, R.J. (1979). On the Determination of Public Debt. Journal of Political Economy, 81,940-971.

Bhat, K.S., Nirmala, V. & Kamaiah, B. (1993). Causality between Tax Revenues and Expenditure of Indian States. The Indian Economic Journal, 40(4), 108-117.

Blackley, P. (1986). Causality between Revenues and Expenditure and the Size of the Federal Budget. Public Finance Quarterly, 14, 139-156.

Bohn, H. (1991). Budget Balance Through Revenue or Spending Adjustment? Some Historical Evidence for the United States. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14, 139-156.

Buchanan, J & Wagner, R.W. (1977). Democracy in Deficit. New York: Academic Press.

Buchanan, J & Wagner, R.W. (1978). Dialogues Concerning Fiscal Religion. Journal of Monetary Economics, 4, 627-636.

Darrat, A.F. (1998). Tax and spend, or Spend and Tax? An Inquiry into the Turkish Budgetary Process. Southern Economic Journal, 64, 940-956.

Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.

Ewing, B & Payne, J. (1998). Government Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from Latin America. Journal of Economic Development, 23, 57-69.

Fasano, U. & Wang, Q. (2002). Testing the Relationship between Government Spending and Revenue: Evidence from GCC countries. (Working Paper). IMF WP/02/201.

Friedman, M. (1978). The Limitations of Tax Limitations. Policy Review, 7-14.

Fuller, W. A. (1976). Introduction to Statistical Time Series. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

Garcia, S & Henin, P.Y. (1999). Balancing Budget through Tax Increases or Expenditure Cuts: It is neutral? Economic Modelling, 16, 591-612.

Gonzalo, J. (1994). Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships. Journal of Econometrics, 60, 203-233.

Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, July, 424-438.

Gujarati, D. Basic Econometrics. (2003): New York: Mc Graw Hill.

Hatemi-J, A & Shukur, G. (1999). The Causal Nexus of Government Spending and Revenue in Finland: A Bootstrap Approach. Applied Economics Letters, 6,641-644.

Hondroyiannis, G & Papapetrou, E. (1996). An Examination of the Causal Relationship between Government Spending and Revenue: A Cointegration Analysis. Public Choice, 89, 363-374.

Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inferences on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52,169-210.

Jones, J.D & Joulfaian, D. (1991). Federal Goverment Expenditure and revenue in the Early Years of the American Republic: Evidence from 1792 to 1860. Journal of Macroeconomics, 13(1), 133-155.

Joulfaian, D. & Mookerjee, R. (1991). Dynamics of Government Revenue and Expenditures in Industrial Economics. Applied Economics, 23, 1839-1844.

Koren, S. & Stiassny, A. (1998). Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? An International Study. Journal of Policy Modelling, 20(2), 163-191.

Li, X. (2001). Government Revenue, Government Expenditure and Temporal Causality: Evidence from China. Applied Economics, 33, 485-497.

Manage, N. & Marlow, M.L. (1986). The Causal Relation between Federal Expenditure and Receipts. Southern Economic Journal, 52 (January), 617-629.

Marlow. M.L & Manage, N. (1987). Expenditures and Receipt: Testing for Causality in State and Local Goverment Finance. Public Choices, 53, 243-255.

Mariam, A.A, Muzafar, S.H, W.N.W Azman Saini & Azali, M. (2000). Testing for Causality between Taxation and Government Spending: An Application of Toda-Yamamoto Approach. Pertanika Journal of Social Science & Humanities, 8(1), 45-50.

Meltzer, A.H & Richard, S.F. (1981). A Rational Theory of the Size of the Goverment. Journal of Political Economy, 89, 914-927.

Musgrave, R.A. (1966). Principles of Budget Determination. In A.H. Cameron & W. Henderson (Eds.), Public Finance: Selected Readings (pp. 15-27). New York: Random House.

Miller, S.M. & Russek, F. S. (1990). Co-Integration and Error-Correction Model: The Temporal Causality between Goverment Taxes and Spending. Southern Economic Journal, 57, 221-229.

Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & Zulkefly Abdul Karim. (1999). Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan Perbelanjaan Awam dan Swasta: Analisis Teori dan Realiti di Semenan-jung Malaysia, dalam Pascasidang Seminar Fakulti Ekonomi, Pengeluaran Awam dan Swasta: Justifikasi dan Realiti di Semenanjung Malaysia, (m/s 36-52).

Narayan, P.K. (2005). The Government Revenue and Goverment Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Nine Asian Countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 15, 1203-1216.

Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992). A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegra-tion Rank Test Statistics. Oxford Buletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 461-471.

Owoye, O. (1995). The Causal Relationship between Taxes and Expenditure in the G7 Countries: Cointegration and Error Correction Models. Applied Economics Letters, 2, 19-22.

Peacock, A & Wiseman, J. (1961). The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Peacock, A & Wiseman, J. (1979). Approaches to the Analysis of Government Expenditure Growth. Public Finance Quarterly, 1, 3-23.

Provopoulos, G & Zambaras, A. (1991). Testing for Causality between Govern-ment Revenue and Goverment Expenditure. Southern Economic Journal, 54(3), 763-769.

Ram, R. (1988a). Additional Evidence on Causality between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure. Southern Economic Journal, 54(January), 763-769.

Ram, R. (1988b). A Multicountry Perspective on Causality between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure. Public Finance, 43,261-269.

Said, S. E. & Dickey, D. A. (1984). Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive Moving Average Models of Unknown Order. Biometrika, 71, 599-607.

Shah, A & Baffes, J. (1994). Causality and Comovement between Taxes and Expenditure: Historical Evidence from Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Journal of Development Economics, 44, 311-331.

Toda, H. Y. & Phillips, P. C. B. (1993). Vectors Autoregressions and Causality. Econometrica, 61, 1367- 1393.

Toda, H.Y & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.

Von Furstenberg, G., Green, R.J & & Jeong, J,-H. (1985). Have Taxes Led Government Expenditures? The United States as a Test Case. Journal of Public Policy, 3, 321-348.

Von Furstenberg, G., Green, RJ & Jeong, J,-H. (1986). Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? Review of Economics and Statistics, 68 (May), 179-188.

Wagner, A. (1958). Three Extracts on Public Finance, in R.A Musgrave and A. Peacock (eds), Classics in the Theory of Public Finance (Macmillan, New York), pp. 1-16.

Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Aminudin Mokhtar, Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & Mustazar Mansur. (2003). Hubungan antara Hasil dengan Perbelanjaan: Bukti Empirikal Kerajaan Persekutuan dan Kerajaan Negeri di Semenanjung Malaysia. Prosiding Seminar Kebangsaan, Dasar Awam dalam Era Globalisasi: Penilaian Semula ke Arah Pemantapan Strategi, Fakulti Ekonomi UKM, 219-248

DOI: 10.23917/jep.v7i1.3990

Article Metrics

Abstract view(s): 1092 time(s)
PDF: 457 time(s)

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.