Competitiveness and Flow of Indonesian Paper Trade in The Global Market

Leo Rio Ependi Malau(1*), Nur Arifatul Ulya(2), Edwin Martin(3), Raissa Anjani(4), Bambang Tejo Premono(5), Tri Yulni(6)

(1) Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional
(2) Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional
(3) Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional
(4) Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional
(5) Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional
(6) Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

Indonesia has the opportunity to increase the share of paper exports in the world due to the declining dominance of NORSCAN (North America and Scandinavia). The momentum is not only an opportunity for Indonesia, but also other paper exporters in Asia and Latin America. This research aims to analyze the competitiveness and determinants of Indonesia’s paper trade flow using secondary data in 2001- 2020 with 11 main export destination countries as objects using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD) and Gravity models. The RCA analysis showed Indonesia’s paper has competitiveness in 11 export destination countries with diverse growth rates. This is in line with Indonesia’s paper market position as Rising Star in 5 countries which means that Indonesian paper commodities are in a market with high demand growth and market share. Gravity model estimates show that Indonesia and importers real GDP per capita, as well as the level of competitiveness positively affects Indonesia’s paper exports, inversely, export prices and dummy Technical Barrier to Trade (TBT) give negative impact. Based on these results, efforts to increase exports should be done by promoting paper to market with Rising Star and large economies such as China and USA as the priority choices.

Keywords

EPD, Export, Gravity model, Panel data, RCA

Full Text:

PDF

References

Amadea, D., & Oktora, S. I. (2021). Dampak kebijakan trade remedy terhadap ekspor coated paper Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat menggunakan model ARIMA intervensi. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 15(1), 105–126. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i1.454

Ardiyanti, S. T., & Saputri, A. S. (2018). Dampak non tariff measures (NTMs) terhadap ekspor udang Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 12(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v12i1.244

Asosiasi Pengusaha Hutan Indonesia. (2016). Road map pembangunan hutan produksi tahun 2016-2025.

Baier, S. L., Bergstrand, J. H., & Feng, M. (2014). Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade. Journal of International Economics, 93(2), 339–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.03.005

Balassa, B. (1965). Trade Liberalisation and “ Revealed Comparative Advantage". The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studiesonomic and Social Studies, 33(2), 99–123. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x

Bensassi, S., Márquez-Ramos, L., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Suárez-Burguet, C. (2015). Relationship between logistics infrastructure and trade: Evidence from Spanish regional exports. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 72(2015), 47–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2014.11.007

Buongiorno, J. (2016). Gravity models of forest products trade: Applications to forecasting and policy analysis. Forestry, 89(2), 117–126. https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpw005

Chaney, T. (2018). The gravity equation in international trade: An explanation. Journal of Political Economy, 126(1), 150–177. https://doi.org/10.1086/694292

Chauhan, S., & Meena, B. L. (2021). Introduction to pulp and paper industry: Global scenario. Physical Sciences Reviews, 6(5), 81–109. https://doi.org/10.1515/psr-2020-0014

Darhyati, A. T., Suharno, S., & Rifin, A. (2017). Impact of Non Tariff Measure on Indonesian Cacao Exports. International Journal of Agriculture System, 5(2), 175–184. https://doi.org/10.20956/ijas.v5i2.1191

Das, J., Tanger, S. M., Lynn Kennedy, P., & Vlosky, R. P. (2018). Examining the relationship between regulatory quality and forest product exports to India: A gravity model approach. Forest Products Journal, 68(2), 172–181. https://doi.org/10.13073/FPJ-D-17-00022

Departemen Perindustrian. (2009). Roadmap Industri Kertas.

Dos Reis, J. G. M., Amorim, P. S., Cabral, J. A. S. P., & Toloi, R. C. (2020). The impact of logistics performance on Argentina, Brazil, and the US soybean exports from 2012 to 2018: A gravity model approach. Agriculture (Switzerland), 10(8), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture10080338

Dumor, K., & Yao, L. (2019). Estimating China’s trade with its partner countries within the belt and road initiative using neural network analysis. Sustainability (Switzerland), 11(5), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11051449

Erokhin, V., Diao, L., & Du, P. (2020). Sustainability-related implications of competitive advantages in agricultural value chains: Evidence from central Asia-China trade and investment. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(3), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12031117

Esterhuizen, D. (2006). An evaluation of the competitiveness of the south african agribusiness sector. University of Pretoria.

FAO. (2019). Food and Agricultural Organization. http://www.fao.org/home/en/

Firdaus, M. (2011). Ekonometrika: Suatu Pendekatan Aplikatif. In Bumi Aksara (2nd ed.). Bumi Aksara.

Forest Watch Indonesia. (2015). Pelanggaran Perusahaan Hutan Tanaman Industri (HTI) dan Pembiayaan “Studi Kasus PT. Toba Pulp Lestari dan APRIL Group.” http://responsibank.id/media/277205/case-study-responsibank-indonesia-pelanggaran-perusahaan-hutan-tanaman-industri-hti-dan-pembiayaan.pdf

Ganbaatar, B., Huang, J., Shuai, C., Nawaz, A., & Ali, M. (2021). Empirical analysis of factors affecting the bilateral trade between Mongolia and China. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(7), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13074051

Hendra, S. T. N., & Hartomo, D. D. (2017). Pengaruh Konsentrasi Dan Pangsa Pasar Terhadap Pengambilan Resiko Bank. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 17(2), 35–50. https://doi.org/10.20961/jbm.v17i2.17176

Inayah, I., Oktaviani, R., & Daryanto, H. K. (2016). The analysis of export determinant of Indonesian pepper in the international market. International Journal of Science and Research, 5(11), 1856–1860. https://doi.org/10.21275/ART20163261

Juanda, B. (2009). Ekonometrika Pemodelan dan Pendugaan. IPB Press.

Kanaya, I. A., & Firdaus, M. (2014). Daya Saing Dan Permintaan Ekspor Produk Biofarmaka Indonesia Di Negara Tujuan Utama Periode 2003-2012. Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis, 11(3), 183–198. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.11.3.183-198

Kementerian Perdagangan. (2019). Produktifitas Industri Pulp dan Kertas. In Warta Ekspor-Kementerian Perdagangan.

Khaliqi, M., Rifin, A., & Adhi, A. K. (2018). Trade Effect of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) on Indonesia’s Shrimp Export. Indonesian Journal of Agricultural Research, 1(2), 134–141. https://doi.org/10.32734/injar.v1i2.313

Kim, M. (2019). Export competitiveness of India’s textiles and clothing sector in the United States. Economies, 7(2), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7020047

KLHK. (2018). Status Hutan dan Kehutanan Indonesia 2018. In Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan RI. Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Republik Indonesia.

Kusuma, R. L., & Firdaus, M. (2015). Daya Saing dan Faktor yang Memengaruhi Volume Ekspor Sayuran Indonesia Terhadap Negara Tujuan Utama. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Agribisnis, 12(3), 226–236. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.12.3.226

Kuzmenko, E., Rumankova, L., Benesova, I., & Smutka, L. (2022). Czech Comparative Advantage in Agricultural Trade with Regard to EU-27 : Main Developmental Trends and Peculiarities. Agriculture (Switzerland), 12(27), 1–22. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12020217

Li, E., Lu, M., & Chen, Y. (2020). Analysis of China’s importance in “belt and road initiative” trade based on a gravity model. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(17), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU12176808

Liu, B., & Gao, J. (2022). Normality in the Distribution of Revealed Comparative Advantage Index for International Trade and Economic Complexity. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 12(3), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12031125

Long, Y. (2021). Export competitiveness of agricultural products and agricultural sustainability in China. Regional Sustainability, 2(3), 203–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2021.09.001

Madiah, S., & Widyastutik, W. (2020). Fasilitasi Perdagangan Dan Ekspor Manufaktur Unggulan Indonesia Ke Rcep. Jurnal BPPK : Badan Pendidikan Dan Pelatihan Keuangan, 13(1), 15–32. https://doi.org/10.48108/jurnalbppk.v13i1.388

Malau, L. R. E., Ulya, N. A., & Yulni, T. (2021). Daya saing ekspor pulp dan kertas Indonesia di pasar global. In Ramdhoani Ramdhoani, L. G. A. S. Wijaya, Luh Putu Yuni Widyastuti, & Ni Kadek Ema Sustia Dewi (Eds.), Seminar Nasional Pertanian Berkelanjutan (pp. 20–29). Universitas Mahasaraswati Press.

Marina, M., & Sri Multasih. (2016). Analisis kinerja ekspor kertas Indonesia ke Amerika Latin. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 5(2), 87–104. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.5.2.2016.87-104

Matkovski, B., Zekić, S., Ðokić, D., Jurjević, Ž., & Ðurić, I. (2022). Export competitiveness of agri-food sector during the eu integration process: Evidence from the western balkans. Foods, 11(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11010010

Maulana, A., & Kartiasih, F. (2017). Analisis Ekspor Kakao Olahan Indonesia ke Sembilan Negara Tujuan Tahun 2000-2014. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 17(2), 103–117. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v17i2.664

Meiri, A., Nurmalina, R., & Rifin, A. (2013). Analisis Perdagangan Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Journal of Industrial and Beverage Crops, 4(1), 39–46. https://doi.org/10.21082/jtidp.v4n1.2013.p39-46

Mizik, T., Szerletics, Á., & Jámbor, A. (2020). Agri-food export competitiveness of the ASEAN countries. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(23), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12239860

Morland, C., Schier, F., & Weimar, H. (2020). The structural gravity model and its implications on global forest product trade. Forests, 11(2), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11020178

Mubarokah, I., & Nurhayati, E. (2020). Analisis pengembangan ekspor kayu manis Indonesia. Ecoplan, 3(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.20527/ecoplan.v3i1.52

Nasrullah, M., Chang, L., Khan, K., Rizwanullah, M., Zulfiqar, F., & Ishfaq, M. (2020). Determinants of forest product group trade by gravity model approach: A case study of China. Forest Policy and Economics, 113(2020), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102117

Nguyen, D. D. (2022). Determinants of Vietnam’s rice and coffee exports: using stochastic frontier gravity model. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 29(1), 19–34. https://doi.org/10.1108/jabes-05-2020-0054

Nurhayati, E., Hartoyo, S., & Mulatsih, S. (2018). Pengembangan Pasar Ekspor Lada Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 12(2), 267–288. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v12i2.335

Pinandhita, A. N., & Agustina, N. (2019). Analysis of Potential Export Diversification of Rubber Tire Derivative Products to 9 Nontraditional Countries. Atlantis Press: Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, 98(3rd International Conference on Trade (ICOT 2019)), 96–101. https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.21

Riyani, R., Darsono, D., & Ferichani, M. (2018). Analisis Permintaan Ekspor Komoditas Pertanian Indonesia oleh Pasar Tiongkok. AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research, 4(2), 120–128. https://doi.org/10.18196/agr.4267

Sari, A. R., Hakim, D. B., & Anggraeni, L. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Non-Tariff Measures Ekspor Komoditi Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Indonesia Ke Negara Tujuan Ekspor Utama. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 3(2), 111–135. https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.3.2.2014.111-135

Sari, K. R., & Widyastutik, W. (2015). Faktor yang mempengaruhi dan estimasi tarif ekuivalen NTBs ekspor kayu lapis Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 9(1), 95–108. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v9i1.18

Shobande, O. A. (2019). Effect of economic integration on agricultural export performance in selected West African countries. Economies, 7(3), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7030079

Simangunsong, B. C. H., & Wulandari, R. A. (2016). Analisis Daya Saing Produk Pulp dan Kertas Indonesia di Pasar Dunia. Jurnal Ilmu Teknologi Kayu Tropis, 14(1), 87–101. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.51850/jitkt.v14i1.399.g341

Sun, L., Bogdanski, B. E. C., Stennes, B., & Kooten, G. C. Van. (2010). Impacts of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers on the global forest products trade: An application of the global forest product model. International Forestry Review, 12(1), 49–65. https://doi.org/10.1505/ifor.12.1.49

Sunardi, D., Oktaviani, R., & Novianti, T. (2014). Analisis Daya Saing Dan Faktor Penentu Ekspor Komoditas Unggulan Indonesia Ke Organisasi Kerjasama Islam (OKI). Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 3(2), 95–110. https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.3.2.95-110

Suryana, A. T., Fariyanti, A., & Rifin, A. (2014). Analisis Perdagangan Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Jurnal Tanaman Industri Dan Penyegar, 1(1), 29–40. https://doi.org/10.21082/jtidp.v1n1.2014.p29-40

Trade Map. (2021). Trade Map. Trade Map. https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx

Tristi, M., Harianto, H., & Rifin, A. (2021). Dampak Kebijakan Tarif dan Non-tarif Negara-Negara Importir atas Ekspor Tuna Olahan Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia, 26(3), 468–478. https://doi.org/10.18343/jipi.26.3.468

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2010). NON-TARIFF MEASURES : Evidence from selected developing countries and future research agenda.

Vu, T. T. H., Tian, G., Khan, N., Zada, M., Zhang, B., & Nguyen, T. Van. (2019). Evaluating the international competitiveness of Vietnam wood processing industry by combining the variation coefficient and the entropy method. Forests, 10(10), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10100901

Wang, D. F., Dong, Q. L., Peng, Z. M., Khan, S. A. R., & Tarasov, A. (2018). The green logistics impact on international trade: Evidence from developed and developing countries. Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(7), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10072235

Wardani, M. A., Mulatsih, S., & Rindayati, W. (2018). Competitiveness and Factors Affecting Indonesian Food Industry’s Export to Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Etikonomi, 17(2), 185–198. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v17i2.7239

Wood, J., Wu, J., Li, Y., & Kim, J. (2019). The impact of TBT and SPS measures on Japanese and Korean Exports to China. Sustainability (Switzerland), 11(21), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11216141

World Bank. (2021). World Bank. World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/

Wu, Z., Cai, H., Zhao, R., Fan, Y., Di, Z., & Zhang, J. (2020). A topological analysis of trade distance: Evidence from the gravity model and complex flow networks. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(9), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU12093511

Yanti, L., & Widyastutik, W. (2012). Daya Saing Produk Turunan Susu Indonesia Di Pasar Dunia. Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis, 9(3), 183–193. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.9.3.183-193

Yao, X., Yasmeen, R., Li, Y., Hafeez, M., & Padda, I. U. H. (2019). Free trade agreements and environment for sustainable development: A gravity model analysis. Sustainability (Switzerland), 11(3), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030597

Yemima, R., & Novianti, T. (2020). Competitiveness and Determinant of Indonesian Processed Cocoa Demand in the AANZFTA Framework. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan, 5(1), 13–25. https://doi.org/10.20473/jiet.v5i1.19627

DOI: 10.23917/jep.v23i1.17648

Article Metrics

Abstract view(s): 1048 time(s)
PDF: 1242 time(s)

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.