Factors Predicting Fertility Rate in Indonesia

Yusni Maulida(1*), Harlen Harlen(2), Delfi Ranta Sari(3), Tehubijuluw Zacharias(4)

(1) Universitas Riau
(2) Universitas Riau
(3) Universitas Andalas
(4) Universitas Kristen Maluku
(*) Corresponding Author


The highly competitive environment of the nowadays modern world brought about survival challenges. Hence, individuals all over the globe are striving for a quality life with the fulfillment of their basic needs. Simultaneously, the population plays an important role in determining the distribution of resources and quality of life in a particular area. At the same time, the fertility rate is an important element of the world’s population. Hence, this study aims to analyze the effect of women's education, women's participation in the labor market, income, and mortality on the fertility rate in Indonesia. Multiple regression analysis methods with Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis technique were applied. Based on the result of the research conducted, women's education, participation in the labor market, income, and mortality rates together significantly affect fertility in Indonesia in the long term. However, the results were insignificant in the short term.  Moreover, based on the long-term results of the data, it is suggested that in fertility control, these factors need to be included in developing nations.


Fertility Rate; Women's Education; Women's Participation in the Labor Market; Income; Mortality

Full Text:



Ahmed, M., Irfan, M., Meero, A., Tariq, M., Comite, U., Abdul Rahman, A. A., . . . Gunnlaugsson, S. B. (2021). Bubble Identification in the Emerging Economy Fuel Price Series: Evidence from Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test. Processes, 10(1), 65.

Aitken, R. J. (2022). The changing tide of human fertility (Vol. 37, pp. 629-638): Oxford University Press.

Al Faizah, S. A., Perwithosuci, W., Hidayah, N., & Abidin, A. Z. (2022). Women’s Literacy Rate and Women’s Labor Participation in ASEAN. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 23(1), 56-62.

Almeida, A. B., Buldyrev, S. V., Alencar, A. M., & Giovambattista, N. (2021). How Small Is Too Small for the Capillarity Theory? The Journal of Physical Chemistry C, 125(9), 5335-5348.

Amka, A., & Dalle, J. (2021). The Satisfaction of the Special Need’Students with E-Learning Experience During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case of Educational Institutions in Indonesia. 14, 1, 334.

Amrullah, M., Wahyudi, S. T., & Ekawaty, M. (2020). Mitigating Income Inequality in Bali Province, Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 21(2), 71-80.

Becker, G. S. (1981). Altruism in the Family and Selfishness in the Market Place. Economica, 48(189), 1-15.

Bender, S., Brown, K. S., Hensley Kasitz, D. L., & Vega, O. (2022). Academic women and their children: Parenting during COVID‐19 and the impact on scholarly productivity. Family Relations, 71(1), 46-67.

Brinton, M. C., & Oh, E. (2019). Babies, work, or both? Highly educated women’s employment and fertility in East Asia. American Journal of Sociology, 125(1), 105-140.

Buckman, J. E., Saunders, R., Stott, J., Arundell, L.-L., O'Driscoll, C., Davies, M. R., . . . Ambler, G. (2021). Role of age, gender and marital status in prognosis for adults with depression: An individual patient data meta-analysis. Epidemiology and psychiatric sciences, 30, e42.

Carneiro, P., García, I. L., Salvanes, K. G., & Tominey, E. (2021). Intergenerational mobility and the timing of parental income. Journal of Political Economy, 129(3), 757-788.

Chen, T., Hou, P., Wu, T., & Yang, J. (2022). The Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Fertility Intentions of Women with Childbearing Age in China. Behavioral Sciences, 12(9), 335.

Dong, X., Wu, Y., Chen, X., Li, H., Cao, B., Zhang, X., . . . Li, X. (2021). Effect of thermal, acoustic, and lighting environment in underground space on human comfort and work efficiency: A review. Science of The Total Environment, 786, 147537.

Erikson, E., & Shirado, H. (2021). Networks, property, and the division of labor. American Sociological Review, 86(4), 759-786.

Filatotchev, I., Ireland, R. D., & Stahl, G. K. (2022). Contextualizing management research: An open systems perspective. Journal of Management Studies, 59(4), 1036-1056.

Freedman, R. (1979). Theories of fertility decline: A reappraisal. Social forces, 58(1), 1-17.

Galliera, A., & Rutström, E. E. (2021). Crowded out: Heterogeneity in risk attitudes among poor households in the US. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 63(2), 103-132.

Grimm, M., Günther, I., Harttgen, K., & Klasen, S. (2022). Slow-downs of fertility decline: When should we call it a'fertility stall'? Demographic Research, 46, 737-766.

Gu, X. (2022). ‘Save the children!’: Governing left-behind children through family in China’s Great Migration. Current sociology, 70(4), 513-538.

Hellstrand, J., Nisén, J., & Myrskylä, M. (2022). Less partnering, less children, or both? Analysis of the drivers of first birth decline in Finland since 2010. European Journal of Population, 38(1), 191–221.

Horwood, C., Hinton, R., Haskins, L., Luthuli, S., Mapumulo, S., & Rollins, N. (2021). ‘I can no longer do my work like how I used to’: a mixed methods longitudinal cohort study exploring how informal working mothers balance the requirements of livelihood and safe childcare in South Africa. BMC Women's Health, 21(1), 1-15.

Karuniawati, H., Hassali, M. A. A., Suryawati, S., Ismail, W. I., Taufik, T., & Hossain, M. S. (2021). Assessment of knowledge, attitude, and practice of antibiotic use among the population of Boyolali, Indonesia: a cross-sectional study. International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(16), 8258.

Kearney, M. S., Levine, P. B., & Pardue, L. (2022). The Puzzle of Falling US Birth Rates since the Great Recession. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 36(1), 151-176.

Klasen, S., Le, T. T. N., Pieters, J., & Santos Silva, M. (2021). What drives female labour force participation? Comparable micro-level evidence from eight developing and emerging economies. The Journal of Development Studies, 57(3), 417-442.

Lazzari, E., Gray, E., & Chambers, G. M. (2021). The contribution of assisted reproductive technology to fertility rates and parity transition. Demographic Research, 45, 1081-1096.

Leibenstein, H. (1974). An interpretation of the economic theory of fertility: promising path or blind alley? Journal of economic literature, 12(2), 457-479.

Liu, G., Chen, S., Jin, H., & Liu, S. (2021). Optimum opportunistic maintenance schedule incorporating delay time theory with imperfect maintenance. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 213, 107668.

Mansoor, M. (2021). Citizens' trust in government as a function of good governance and government agency's provision of quality information on social media during COVID-19. Government Information Quarterly, 38(4), 101597.

Manullang, S. O., Mardani, M., Hendriarto, P., & Aslan, A. (2021). Understanding Islam and The Impact on Indonesian Harmony and Diversity: A Critical Analysis of Journal Publication 2010 to 2020. Al-Ulum, 21(1), 68-88.

Omay, T., & Iren, P. (2021). Controlling Heterogeneous Structure of Smooth Breaks in Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Testing. Computational Economics, 1-33.

Øversveen, E. (2022). Capitalism and alienation: Towards a Marxist theory of alienation for the 21st century. European Journal of Social Theory, 25(3), 440-457.

Owusu, P. A., Sarkodie, S. A., & Pedersen, P. A. (2021). Relationship between mortality and health care expenditure: Sustainable assessment of health care system. Plos one, 16(2), e0247413.

Putra Pemayun, A., & Sunariani, N. N. (2022). Digital promotion and hospitality as flagship travel agency brings Chinese tourists to Bali. Journal of Management Information & Decision Sciences, 25(1), 1-13.

Sagalova, V., Nanama, S., Zagre, N. M., & Vollmer, S. (2021). Long-term consequences of early marriage and maternity in West and Central Africa: Wealth, education, and fertility. Journal of Global Health, 11, 13004.

Sari, D. W., & Rudi Purwono, D. (2021). Analysis of the relationship between income inequality and social variables: Evidence from Indonesia. Economics and Sociology, 14(1), 103-119.

Secord, J. A. (2021). Revolutions in the head: Darwin, Malthus and Robert M. Young. The British Journal for the History of Science, 54(1), 41-59.

Vergani, M., O'Brien, K. S., Lentini, P., & Barton, G. (2019). Does the awareness of mortality shape people's openness to violence and conflict? An examination of terror management theory. Political Psychology, 40(1), 111-124.

Voskoboynikov, I. B. (2021). Accounting for growth in the USSR and Russia, 1950–2012. Journal of Economic Surveys, 35(3), 870-894.

White, P. A., Awad, Y. A., Gauvin, L., Spencer, N. J., McGrath, J. J., Clifford, S. A., . . . Markham, W. (2022). Household income and maternal education in early childhood and risk of overweight and obesity in late childhood: Findings from seven birth cohort studies in six high-income countries. International Journal of Obesity, 46(9), 1703-1711.

Zhang, W.-B. (2021). An Integration of Neoclassical Growth Theory and Economic Structural Change with Monopolistic Competition Theory. Business and Economic Research, 11(2), 145-164.

Article Metrics

Abstract view(s): 641 time(s)
PDF: 1018 time(s)


  • There are currently no refbacks.